PLEASE DO NOT APPLY ONLINE
Purpose of the APW
The purpose of this assignment is to conduct a study on illicit trade of cigarettes in Pakistan 2025-26.
Background
The consumption of cigarettes in Pakistan is not officially estimated. The most effective way to reduce tobacco consumption is to increase the price of tobacco products through higher taxes. In Pakistan, the cigarette industry claims that higher taxes drive illicit trade, claiming smokers seek out non-duty-paid cigarettes because they cost more.
There is no evidence that Pakistan's illicit cigarette market is as large as the tobacco industry claims. Studies have examined the size of the illicit cigarette market using a variety of methods.
The study will use multistage sampling technique at first stage Pakistan Bureau of statistics will provide a provincially representative sample of PSU’s. Based on initial discussions with PBS a sample of 1029 PSU’s will be sufficient. Approximately 40 empty packs will be collected from vendors and the street from each PSU by a numerator. Overall, 41,160 packs will be collected from four provinces and AJK.
Numerator will also visit three shops in the PSU to collect information about most sold brands in that PSU and market prices of all brands available in the shop.
Scope of work
The undersigned will work closely with the technical teams at WHO and MoNHSR&C to achieve the following:
- Sample design services from PBS to conduct a study on illicit trade of tobacco
- Ethical approval for the study
- Conduct Province wise training of Numerators
- Collection of empty Packs from selected PSU’s
- Data entry on excel sheet
- Dissemination of the study
Planned timelines (tentative)
Start date: 15/11/2025
End date: 31/12/2025
Deliverables and timelines
First Deliverable: Signing of contract
Payment: 0%
Second Deliverable: First Progress report sharing inception report 20-11-25
Payment: 30%
Third Deliverable: Second progress numerator trainings (01-12-25)
Payment: 40%
Fourth Deliverable: Third progress report sharing final draft report. (26-12-25)
Payment: 30%
Technical Supervision
The selected organization will work under the direct supervision of:
Responsible Officer: Technical Officer Health Promotion
Manager: Public Health Specialist (Disease Control)
Experience
At least one year experience and expertise in primary data collection will an asset.
Qualification
Team should have master’s in social sciences or statistics
Place of assignment
The selected candidate will be based in Islamabad (Field travel may require).
To Apply
Interested Institutions are required to submit a proposal.
Do not apply online: The Technical and Financial Proposals are required to be submitted in separate sealed envelopes on the following address with the title of assignment on envelope by COB 12 Nov 2025.
Address: c/o Team Lead Non-Communicable Diseases, WHO Country Office Pakistan, NIH Premises Park Road, Chak Shehzad, Islamabad